EIA预计2025年后煤炭和核电站发电将趋于平稳

  发布时间: 2020年03月31日 20:04:16   作者: 广丰能源网

原标题:EIA预计2025年后煤炭和核电站发电将趋于平稳

中国石化新闻网讯 据美国能源信息署2月7日报道,尽管预计到2050年天然气和可再生能源发电量将增长,但美国能源信息署(EIA)在《2020年能源展望》(AEO2020)参考案例中预测,到2050年,煤炭和核电站将共同提供超过25%的发电量。

在AEO2020参考案例中,煤炭发电占比从2019年的24%下降到2050年的13%,核电发电占比预计从2019年的20%下降到2050年的12%。在高油气供应的情况下,天然气供应增加导致天然气价格下降。在这种情况下,天然气发电量继续增加,并将替代煤炭和核能发电,到2050年,煤炭和核能分别占总发电量的9%和7%;同样,在石油和天然气供应不足的情况下,天然气价格上涨将导致2050年煤炭和核能的份额分别下降到16%和14%。

煤炭和核能发电的最新发展趋势源于天然气价格较低、电力需求增长有限、国家级清洁能源倡议以及可再生能源竞争加剧。根据EIA对发电厂运营商的调查和几家公司的公告,一些火力发电厂将退役,这些发电厂的总容量高达33GW。

EIA预计,随着天然气价格上涨和燃煤电厂的竞争力不断增强,2025-2050年,只有效率更高的燃煤电厂才会继续运营。EIA预计,根据可负担清洁能源(ACE)规则,低效率燃煤电厂将在2025年前退役。ACE 规则是2019年6月由美国环保局制定的,用于指导美国各州制定改善燃煤电厂的热耗率(即热效率),以减少二氧化碳(CO2)排放。

在AEO2020参考案例中,美国核电总发电量从2019年的98GW降至2050年的79GW。与EIA对火力电厂的预测类似,大部分核电退役预计发生在2020年至2025年之间。在参考案例中,有近24GW的核电容量退役,其中7.5GW已经公布,另外还将有16GW将到2050年退役,以应对竞争激烈的市场条件。

贾丽 摘译自 美国能源信息署

原文如下:

EIA projects generation from coal and nuclear power plants will plateau after 2025

Despite projected growth in natural gas and renewable energy use to generate electricity through 2050, in the Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) Reference case, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that coal and nuclear power plants will collectively provide more than 25% of generation through 2050.

In the AEO2020 Reference case, the share of electricity generated from coal decreases from 24% in 2019 to 13% in 2050, and the share of electricity generated from nuclear power is projected to fall from 20% in 2019 to 12% in 2050. In the High Oil and Gas Supply case, increased supply of natural gas results in lower natural gas prices. In this scenario, natural gas-fired electricity generation continues to increase, largely at the expense of coal and nuclear, which fall to 9% and 7% of total electricity generation in 2050, respectively. Similarly, in the Low Oil and Gas supply case, higher natural gas prices result in coal’s share falling to 16% and nuclear’s share falling to 14% in 2050.

Recent trends for electricity generated from coal and nuclear are the result of historically low natural gas prices, limited growth in electricity demand, state-level clean energy initiatives, and increasing competition from renewable energy. Several coal-fired power plants, totaling 33 gigawatts (GW) of capacity, have already announced their intention to retire, according to EIA’s survey of power plant operators and the companies’ retirement announcements.

After 2025, EIA projects that only the most efficient coal-fired plants will remain operating through 2050 as natural gas prices rise and coal power plants remain competitive. EIA assumes that less efficient coal-fired plants will retire by 2025 to comply with the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule. This rule, finalized by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in June 2019 as a replacement for the Clean Power Plan, directs states to develop plans for improving the heat rates (i.e., thermal efficiencies) of their coal-fired power plants to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

In the AEO2020 Reference case, total U.S. nuclear power generating capacity decreases from 98 GW in 2019 to 79 GW in 2050. Similar to EIA’s projections for coal retirements, most of the projected nuclear power retirements occur between 2020 and 2025. In the Reference case, nearly 24 GW of nuclear capacity retires: 7.5 GW have already been announced, and EIA’s Reference case projects another 16 GW will retire through 2050 in response to competitive market conditions.

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